Israel desperately needs U.S. Bunker-Buster to defeat Iran - Will Trump provide it?

President Donald Trump is grappling with a pivotal decision in the escalating Israel-Iran conflict, now in its fourth day: whether to provide Israel with the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP), a 30,000-pound bunker-busting bomb capable of destroying Iran’s deeply buried Fordo nuclear enrichment facility. The bomb, which only U.S. B-2 Spirit stealth bombers can carry, is seen by experts as the sole weapon able to penetrate Fordo’s fortified underground structure. Israel lacks both the MOP and the bombers needed to deploy it, making U.S. involvement critical to achieving Jerusalem’s goal of dismantling Iran’s nuclear program.

Iranian officials, including Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, have warned that U.S. participation in attacks on Iran’s nuclear sites would jeopardize any chance of a nuclear disarmament deal, which Trump has publicly supported. On Monday, Araghchi signaled openness to diplomacy, stating, “If President Trump is genuine about diplomacy and interested in stopping this war, next steps are consequential.” However, Trump’s social media post urging Tehran’s evacuation and his early departure from the G7 summit in Canada to address the crisis suggest a potential shift toward military action.

The Fordo facility, buried under mountains and capable of enriching uranium to near-weapons-grade levels, remains a linchpin of Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Experts like Brett McGurk, a former Middle East advisor to four U.S. presidents, emphasize that if Fordo continues enriching post-conflict, Israel’s strategic objectives will fall short. U.S. military exercises over the past two years indicate that destroying Fordo would require multiple B-2 strikes, with successive GBU-57 bombs targeting the same entry point, a mission only American pilots and aircraft can execute.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who launched pre-emptive strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites on June 13 after claiming an “imminent” threat, has long pressed for U.S. access to the GBU-57, a request unmet since the George W. Bush administration. Former Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, speaking to CNN on Monday, stressed that “the job has to be done, by Israel, by the United States.” Senator Lindsey Graham echoed this, urging Trump to provide “whatever bombs” necessary and even fly alongside Israel if diplomacy fails.

Yet, Trump faces resistance within his party. The anti-interventionist MAGA wing, led by figures like Tucker Carlson, argues against U.S. involvement, with Carlson stating on Friday that the U.S. should “drop Israel” and let it “fight its own wars.” Pentagon officials, including Under Secretary Elbridge Colby, warn that diverting resources to the Middle East could undermine U.S. priorities in containing China.

Trump’s current strategy balances diplomacy and coercion. He has instructed envoy Steve Witkoff, and possibly Vice President JD Vance, to pursue talks with Iran, likely engaging Araghchi, a key figure in past nuclear negotiations. However, Trump’s public rhetoric, including claims of a 60-day ultimatum to Iran, and his assertion on Truth Social that “Iran is at the negotiating table,” suggest he is leveraging the GBU-57’s threat to force concessions. If diplomacy falters, Trump must decide whether to escalate U.S. involvement, risking a broader Middle East war he campaigned against, or leave Israel to face Fordo’s resilience alone.