𝗧𝗛𝗘 𝗔𝗙𝗧𝗘𝗥𝗠𝗔𝗧𝗛 | Where Are We Heading From Here? 

THE NUCLEAR PROGRAM

The United States has severely damaged the Ayatollahs’ nuclear program. This will slow the regime’s path to a nuclear weapon, but it will not stop them from pursuing it.

The Israeli Air Force and Mossad paved the way for the U.S. strike. Without Israel’s groundwork,destroying Iranian air defense systems, ground-to-air missiles, detection systems, and infrastructure above nuclear facilities...the American operation would not have been possible as it was.

Operationally, after B-2 bombers dropped bunker busters, additional bombers and advanced aircraft returned with smaller diameter bombs around the targeted area to collapse and sink the entire surface, ensuring the facilities are beyond repair. I anticipate repetitive Israeli Air Force strikes targeting ballistic capabilities, defense systems, and regime assets alongside the broad target bank Israel prepared.

Satellite images showing trucks departing Fordow raise suspicion that enriched uranium was moved. Estimates suggest 400kg of enriched uranium was mobilized. It now falls to Israeli intelligence and the Air Force to locate and destroy those barrels....a difficult task, but not impossible given Israel’s on-the-ground intelligence.

Israel has created a new equation: even after Operation Rising Lion ends, every attempt to rebuild nuclear capabilities or rearm ballistic missiles—whether by the regime or its proxies—will be met with Israeli Air Force strikes in Iran, just as Israel does in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza.

REGIME CHANGE

Regime change was not a primary objective for Israel or the U.S., but targeting Israeli civilians by the regime weaponized this against them, hoping to spark internal revolt against Netanyahu.

The Ayatollahs’ regime is Shia, meaning it is not suicidal....it will do anything to survive.

Eliminating Khamenei by anyone but the Iranian people risks emboldening Hezbollah and the Houthis to join the war, despite their limited capabilities, and may trigger executions of hostages in Gaza. The regime is not suicidal, but its proxies are willing to die for their cause. They are right at Israel’s borders.

Regime change is no longer only a geopolitical calculation but a strategic one. A regime that continues daily threats against Israel, America, Europe, and Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE cannot remain in power.

The goal is not just regime change,it is leadership change. This is more complex than eliminating leaders like Nasrallah in Lebanon or Sinwar in Gaza. Khamenei is the head of a country, not just an organization. Despite Iranian sentiment that the regime doesn’t represent them, replacing Iran’s governance system is the only viable solution. No one wants a younger, more ideological Ayatollah to rise with the same goals.

No military can force this change, but it can create conditions for it. We are approaching a point of no return. If the Iranian people, natural allies of Western civilization, cannot seize this moment, they may never get another. If they fail, the regime could mass-execute its own population once Israeli jets leave Iran....something neither Israel nor the U.S. wants to see.

Lessons from Afghanistan and Gaza have been learned.

HOW WILL THE AYATOLLAHS RETALIATE?

The Iranian regime has sworn retaliation against the U.S. and Israel. They will seek revenge on Israel for America’s strike, but their missiles cannot reach the U.S., and attacking American bases in the region would trigger full-scale war with the U.S. The American military is not the Israeli military: civilians would die, and recovery would take years.

They might target Americans in Qatar or elsewhere, but that would be a reckless move. More likely, they will try to harm Israelis in places like Cyprus.

The Iranian regime is poor at facing conventional armies and terrible at domestic defense but experts in targeting civilians....their own, those in Gaza, and in Israel. They believe governments fall because of civilian pressure, not military defeat. This mindset stems from paranoia and their “success” in Gaza, which severed Israel from the West and ignited American campuses.

Like Hezbollah and Hamas turning to guerrilla warfare after losing conventional capabilities, Iran will now resort to international guerrilla warfare: domestic terror attacks, mass shooters, knife attacks, explosives, lone wolves.

Paradoxically, it is easier for the U.S. to bomb nuclear sites than to stop lone-wolf attacks on American soil, which are managed by police, not the military. This makes them especially dangerous.

BEWARE PSYOPS ON AMERICAN SOIL

Cognitive warfare is the IRGC’s specialty.

They know the American left is anti-war, anti-Israel, anti-Trump, and pro-Hamas. The left’s shaky, dynamic values make it easy to manipulate.

The American right, conversely, has solid values, is “America First,” and doesn’t sympathize with Jihadi culture.

The Ayatollahs will try to leverage Trump’s base by pushing the narrative that Israel tricked the U.S. into war, framing a nuclear Iran as solely Israel’s problem, and attempting to bridge the sentiment gap between left and right.

They will resort to domestic terror, hoping tragedy will unite the nation with the message: “This is happening because you sided with Israel.”

But that’s false. This violence is not due to Israel or Trump’s actions, iit stems from a regime that has chanted “Death to America” since its inception. To them, American deaths mean victory.

A regime openly threatening America cannot have a nuclear weapon. The U.S. government must make this clear to its people before the IRGC’s propaganda does.

CLOSING THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ

China will not allow Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz—not for long.

Though such a move would hurt Iran and China the most, Israel’s target bank will likely expand to include Iranian naval capabilities.

Encouraged by Russia, China’s ally....and supported by U.S. allies like Saudi Arabia, the U.S. may back Israel in dismantling Iran’s navy if the regime tries to close the Strait.

Without its navy, Iran cannot close it.

Israel is fully capable of operating in Bandar Abbas. Even before Operation Rising Lion, Israel demonstrated it could strike the Houthis from the sea, evading detection by Iran and Gulf states.

Iran’s naval mine stockpiles are vulnerable. Convincing the U.S. to let Israel showcase its naval power would accelerate the Abraham Accords and bring Israel closer to allies once thought unreachable.

It would cripple Iran’s regional footprint and be a major step toward regional peace.

TRUMP’S MASTERPLAN: ALL EYES ON RUSSIA

Trump’s main objective is to end wars in the Middle East and the Russia–Ukraine conflict.

His plan is to sever the Russia/China axis from Iran and promote the Abraham Accords, which the Iranian regime tried to derail with the October 7th attack and the war with Hezbollah.

Trump may now propose to Putin: end Middle East hostilities in exchange for ending the war in Ukraine.

Iran’s foreign minister, Aragchi, is in Russia trying to persuade Putin to help Tehran out of its crisis.

Iran is desperate to end this war.

Despite its humiliation, attacking American assets will only bring further destruction. The regime isn’t suicidal, but pride could push it to devastating choices.

Israel won’t negotiate. Trump is cornering them.

Only Putin can offer a lifeline without Tehran appearing to beg its enemies.

EUROPE & IRAN

It’s no coincidence that Europe is calling for negotiations while Trump plays hard to get.

Why does Iran have a space program? It’s not to go to the moon. Their goal is to develop a satellite-based weapon system, allowing them to strike any country, regardless of distance. The space program also develops missiles with a 4,000 km range, enough to reach Europe. Given the EU’s tense relationship with Trump, and its desire to avoid war at all costs, Europe will pursue every diplomatic path possible. But diplomacy has never worked with this regime - and won’t now. Still, Europe and Trump share one goal: ending the war in Ukraine. And I don’t see a scenario in which Europe would take Iran’s side, even behind closed doors.

As we can see, the situation is not simple. Propaganda is everywhere and the true agendas almost always remain unspoken of.